%201.webp)
Global advertising spend will rise 11.9% to USD $1.34 trillion in 2026, according to WARC Media's forecast based on data from 100 markets.
The increase is expected despite consumer caution and geopolitical uncertainty, following 10.0% growth in both 2024 and 2025. Heavy corporate spending linked to artificial intelligence and major events, including the Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid-term elections, is supporting investment.
WARC's latest outlook points to continued strength in digital channels closely tied to performance marketing. Social media, search and retail media are expected to account for 66.4% of total global advertising spend in 2026, rising to 70.0% by 2028.
Among individual channels, social media is forecast to post the fastest growth this year, rising 21.3% to USD $394.6 billion. Video on-demand is expected to increase 15.1% to USD $48.4 billion, retail media 14.3% to USD $202.1 billion, search 14.2% to USD $295.7 billion, and digital out-of-home 13.7% to USD $21.7 billion.
The figures suggest advertisers continue to favour formats that can be adjusted quickly as trading conditions shift. Traditional concerns over household budgets have not stopped companies from increasing media investment, although further escalation in global tensions could still create downside risks.
Sector growth
At an industry level, technology and electronics are expected to be the fastest-growing product category in 2026, with ad spend up 20.7% on the previous year. Travel and transport is forecast to expand by 19.3%, while automotive is set to rise 17.8%.
Social media is expected to account for 40.2% of all technology and electronics advertising spend this year, underlining the sector's importance to platform revenues. The broader shift to digital media is also evident in spending increasingly concentrated among the largest online groups.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are on course to take a combined 59.7% share of global ad spend excluding China in 2026, equal to USD $659.6 billion. That share is expected to rise to 61.5% by 2028, when the three companies' combined spending would reach USD $804.1 billion.
AI effect
The report linked much of the current expansion to AI from several directions. New technology companies are spending heavily to win customers and establish brands, while established groups are increasing budgets to defend their positions in a more crowded market.
AI tools are also affecting how campaigns are planned and delivered, from targeting to asset creation and optimisation. Generative search and AI assistants are also creating new advertising opportunities as they become part of product discovery and purchasing journeys.
"These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth - particularly from the AI boom - is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others," Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data at WARC, said.
Outlook
Growth is expected to slow next year, though from a higher base. WARC forecasts global ad spend will rise 8.4% to USD $1.46 trillion in 2027, then another 7.9% to USD $1.57 trillion in 2028.
That would leave the market 2.3 times larger than in 2019. The moderation in 2027 reflects tougher comparisons after several years of strong gains and a normalisation from unusually rapid recent growth.
Advertising intensity still differs widely between countries. Forecast spend per capita for 2026 is expected to reach USD $1,395 in the US, USD $935 in the UK, USD $850 in Austria and USD $825 in Switzerland, compared with USD $170 in China, USD $110 in Brazil and USD $13 in India.
Lower per-capita figures in large emerging markets suggest room for further expansion as those economies mature and advertiser demand grows.